Already a major soybean, corn, and cotton grower, Brazil could expand its crop area by more than a third by converting overgrazed and overgrown pastureland, according to a research agency that is part of the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture. Besides the potential addition of 70 million acres of cropland, Brazil could increase production by devoting more land to second-crop corn, said a team of U.S. university economists.

“The potential for Brazil to expand its agricultural output through converting degraded pastureland into cropland is large,” said the U.S. analysts, writing at the farmdoc daily blog. “With approximately 70 million acres identified as suitable for conversion, Brazil could increase its total planted area by 35% compared to the current crop season.”

While the actual amount of land converted would depend on commodity prices, international markets, and logistics, there are 45 million acres of “degraded” pastureland in four center-west states that are leading corn and soybean producers. “In Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest agricultural state, the planted area could increase 25% compared to the 2023/2024 season by converting degraded pastureland into cropland,” said the U.S. analysts.

In Brazil, degraded pastureland refers to land that is overgrazed, overgrown with weeds, needs pest control, and needs fertilizer to restore grass cover. The description does not refer to the productivity of the soil.

“Brazil can further expand its currently cultivated area by intensifying land use for second-crop corn (known as safrinha), which is planted immediately after the soybean harvest in January-February each year,” said the analysts. At present, second-crop corn is grown on roughly 40% of soybean land.

In 2013, Brazil surpassed the United States as the No. 1 soybean exporter in the world, and it now challenges America as the largest corn exporter.

“A country with ample land and water in reserve, Brazil still has much unfarmed land that holds potential for future agriculture production,” said USDA economists in 2022. Brazil was projected to bring an additional 20 million hectares, or 49 million acres, into crop production by 2031, they said. “This would be one of the fastest rates of cropland expansion in the world.” In 2022, Brazil had 63.5 million hectares of cropland.

“Increases in fuel and fertilizer costs, credit and storage limitations, an overburdened port and transport system, and pressure to preserve the environment are challenging the long-term growth of Brazilian agriculture,” said the USDA.